← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 52% | 52% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.87 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |