← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 50% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 24% | 25% | 4.11 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.92 | value: +7% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Eren Dinkçi · SC Freiburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marius Wolf · FC Augsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mert Kömür · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Phillip Tietz · FC Augsburg |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Europa-Park-Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Marius Wolf · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyriaque Irié · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 418.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1748.44 | 1670.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.73 | -50.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.42 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.41 |