← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 78% | 73% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 18% | 7.24 | value: +29% |
| RB Leipzig win | 9% | 9% | 11.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Bayern München −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 71% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 34' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München |
| 63' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 74' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 78' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 87' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 417.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1935.89 | 1747.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.03 | -35.67 |
| eye test v1 | 1.49 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.26 | 25.11 |
| state index | 1.95 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.21 |