← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 39% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 36% | 27% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Exequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Arthur · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 471.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1772.22 | 1955.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.80 | -38.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 51.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 27.95 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.93 |