← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 39% | 34% | 2.52 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 36% | 37% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heidenheim +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 48% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 52% | 2.75 | value: +43% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Haktab Omar Traore · Heidenheim |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Julian Niehues · Heidenheim |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Luca Kerber · Heidenheim |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leo Scienza · Heidenheim |
| 83' | 🟨 | Amos Pieper · SV Werder Bremen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Keke Topp · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 6468.00 | 1293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1633.61 | 1728.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.17 | 15.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 29.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 28.23 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.71 |