← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 33% | 30% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.68 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand