← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 85% | 84% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 10.50 | value: +18% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 6% | 5% | 18.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −2.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Holstein Kiel −2.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83% | 72% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 17% | 28% | 7.03 | value: +95% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 9' | 🟥 | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
| 47' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 56' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | ⚽ | Felix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 105.00 | 1324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1861.54 | 1588.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.31 | 26.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 54.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 26.88 |
| state index | 1.43 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.59 |