← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.78 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 16% | 5.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| FC Augsburg −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 63% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 11' | 🟥 | Samuel Essende · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| coach days | 771.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1781.95 | 1694.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.39 | -25.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 44.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.04 | 1.26 |