← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 40% | 38% | 2.40 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 34% | 35% | 3.02 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 54% | 1.87 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 45% | 2.40 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand