← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.77 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 61% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 39% | 3.75 | value: +46% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 39' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 50' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | ⚽ | Eric Dier · FC Bayern München |
| 63' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 73' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · FC Bayern München |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | 🟨 | Arthur Vermeeren · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1823.99 | 1996.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.89 | 13.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 2.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| league points | 49.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 2.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 23.74 | 27.19 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.40 |