← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 77% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.26 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 9% | 6% | 11.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Bayern München −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 36' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 84' | ⚽ | Eric Dier · FC Bayern München |
| 86' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 299.00 |
| 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1923.09 | 1701.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.27 | -45.39 |
| eye test v1 | 2.07 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| league points | 72.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.36 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.55 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.48 | 1.51 |