← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 42% | 37% | 2.32 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 48% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 52% | 2.09 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Andrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 19' | ⚽ | Diogo Leite · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 23' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 38' | ⚽ | Leopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ramon Hendriks · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 139.00 | 749.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1668.24 | 1791.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.55 | -22.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.46 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.03 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.70 |