← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 48% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 26% | 27% | 3.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nikolas Veratschnig · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Denis Vavro · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denis Vavro · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days |
| 443.00 |
| 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1704.67 | 1640.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.73 | -47.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.50 |