← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 75% | 76% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.57 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 10% | 10% | 10.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heidenheim +1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 68% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 19' | ⚽ | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 35' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Heidenheim |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 41' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 56' | ⚽ | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 80' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days |
| 6440.00 |
| 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1542.14 | 1917.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.51 | -22.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| league points | 22.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 70.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 2.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.39 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 2.35 |