← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 50% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +7% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 47% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Stanley N'Soki · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tom Bischof · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 292.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1734.71 | 1673.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.61 | -2.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| league points | 45.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.13 |