← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 44% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 28% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.99 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | ⚽ | Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 37' | 🟨 | David Nemeth · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 46' | 🟨 | Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | 🟨 | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Max Geschwill · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 1289.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1562.38 | 1627.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.44 | 4.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 27.46 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.36 |