← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 39% | 41% | 2.51 | value: +3% |
| Wolfsburg win | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 26' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 36' | 🟨 | El Chadaille Bitshiabu · RB Leipzig |
| 49' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Andreas Skov Olsen · Wolfsburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 406.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1714.15 | 1841.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.47 | -9.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 38.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 25.23 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.53 |