← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 67% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 5.07 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Holstein Kiel −1.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.51 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 44' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 75' | ⚽ | Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 429.00 | 1282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1794.99 | 1555.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.68 | -12.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 45.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 27.42 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.96 |