← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 38% | 27% | 2.53 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 34% | 47% | 2.91 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 66% | 1.61 | value: +6% |
| Under | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.89 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 94.00 | 735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1596.08 | 1794.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.07 | -32.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 6.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.58 |