← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 68% | 69% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.12 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 13% | 16% | 7.76 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Augsburg +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Augsburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 59' | 🟥 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Chrislain Matsima · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 93.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1719.73 | 1984.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.93 | -6.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 1.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.52 |
| league points | 39.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 2.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 27.83 |
| state index | 1.02 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 2.72 |