← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 49% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 48' | ⚽ | Andrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 76' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 88' | 🟨 | András Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 89' | 🟨 | Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Josip Juranović · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eren Dinkçi · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 272.00 |
| 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1689.52 | 1570.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.17 | -9.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| league points | 42.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -1.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 2.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.02 |