← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 43% | 48% | 2.24 | value: +8% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 66% | 1.68 | value: +11% |
| Under | 42% | 34% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 25' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 59' | ⚽ | Felix Agu · SV Werder Bremen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1275.00 |
| 1244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1513.27 | 1614.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.09 | -34.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.58 |