← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 27' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 48' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 51' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Granit Xhaka · VfB Stuttgart |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 67' | ⚽ | Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Angelo Stiller |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 715.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1742.08 | 1915.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.57 | -19.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| league points | 37.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 1.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 27.51 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.86 |