← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 26% | 22% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 47' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Heidenheim |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 57' | 🟨 | Haktab Omar Traore · Heidenheim |
| 78' | 🟨 | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 87' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sirlord Conteh · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 6406.00 | 1262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1583.50 | 1582.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.99 | 8.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 25.82 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.22 |