← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 38% | 41% | 2.52 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 35% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| RB Leipzig +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.68 | value: +3% |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 18' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 48' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 87' | 🟨 | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 25 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 14.00 |
| 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1769.56 | 1722.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.38 | -26.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 1.89 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 2.30 |