← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 64% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.82 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 16% | 15% | 6.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 65% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand