← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 82% | 82% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +35% |
| Bochum win | 7% | 2% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bochum −2 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 72% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jakov Medić · Bochum |
| 28' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jakov Medić · Bochum |
| 42' | 🟥 | João Palhinha · FC Bayern München |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 71' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 80' | 🟨 | Timo Horn · Bochum |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 250.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| elo | 2008.76 | 1588.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.63 | 11.77 |
| eye test v1 | 2.22 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 61.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.78 | 27.95 |
| state index | 1.96 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 1.54 |