← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 49% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.76 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 25% | 35% | 4.07 | value: +41% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand