← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 72% | 72% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.91 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 10% | 10% | 10.15 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Heidenheim −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 6' | ⚽ | Mathias Honsak · Heidenheim |
| 12' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 15' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Heidenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 77' | 🟨 | Thomas Keller · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 1180.00 | 6385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1858.00 | 1586.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.72 | -18.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 40.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 2.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.24 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.11 |