← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.35 | value: +7% |
| Bochum win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −1 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Wolfsburg −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 49' | ⚽ | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 358.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1750.17 | 1593.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.17 | 12.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 28.72 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.92 |