← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 79% | 78% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.32 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 7% | 10% | 15.26 | value: +59% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel +2 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +2 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.52 | value: +4% |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand