← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 61% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +4% |
| Wolfsburg win | 18% | 19% | 5.63 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Wolfsburg −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 37% | 2.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 72' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramon Hendriks · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Behrens · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| coach days | 686.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1773.98 | 1669.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.54 | 16.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.66 |