← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.11 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 19% | 15% | 5.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.07 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Lutsharel Geertruida · RB Leipzig |
| 11' | 🟨 | Siebe Van Der Heyden · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 16' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 58' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 69' | 🟥 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1166.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1856.47 | 1643.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.84 | 14.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 33.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.38 |