← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Bochum win | 32% | 34% | 3.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.14 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 37' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · Bochum |
| 39' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · Bochum |
| 50' | ⚽ | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 1227.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1518.51 | 1502.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.69 | -7.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -1.29 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.33 |