← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 81% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 13% | 12.94 | value: +72% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 5% | 6% | 21.00 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −2.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Bayern München −2.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 65% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 35% | 4.50 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | 🟨 | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Anthony Jung · SV Werder Bremen |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | 🟨 | André Silva · SV Werder Bremen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days | 221.00 | 1194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1984.41 | 1719.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.12 | -18.20 |
| eye test v1 | 2.42 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 51.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.58 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 1.20 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 27.76 |
| state index | 1.90 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.82 | 1.67 |