← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 93% | 90% | 1.04 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 7% | 23.00 | value: +58% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 2% | 3% | 51.00 | value: +49% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −3.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Holstein Kiel −3.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84% | 74% | 1.13 | fair |
| Under | 16% | 26% | 6.00 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 46' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 54' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | ⚽ | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 215.00 | 1219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1914.36 | 1519.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.96 | 29.21 |
| eye test v1 | 2.19 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 48.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.55 | -0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 1.94 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.94 | — |
| state index | 1.95 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.78 | 1.27 |