← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 31, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 41% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +11% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 45% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 55% | 2.13 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| 90' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Zetterer · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1187.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1709.16 | 1781.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.11 | 25.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.39 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.37 |