← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 56% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 44% | 2.75 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 58' | 🟨 | Arthur Chaves · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gift Orban · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 71' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 83' | 🟨 | Anton Stach · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Hložek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Hložek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 86.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1589.24 | 1770.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.54 | 18.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 2.86 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 25.93 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.94 |