← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.86 | value: +15% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Robert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 41' | ⚽ | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 84' | ⚽ (og) | Edmond Tapsoba · RB Leipzig |
| 87' | 🟨 | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1151.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1791.40 | 1935.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.89 | 25.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 2.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| solidity v1 | -1.41 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 27.49 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.81 |