← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Kaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Robin Zentner · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 68' | 🟨 | Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart |
| 86' | ⚽ | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 359.00 | 665.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1698.38 | 1794.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.81 | 17.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.70 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 1.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 24.57 |
| state index | 0.65 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.28 |