← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 76% | 76% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.82 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 9% | 10% | 13.24 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg +2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Bayern München +2 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 70% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Noah Atubolu · SC Freiburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kim Min-jae · FC Bayern München |
| 63' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 68' | ⚽ | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 208.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1719.64 | 1978.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.94 | 9.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 2.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 68.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 15.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 2.56 |
| solidity v1 | -2.52 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 28.74 |
| state index | -0.09 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 0.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 2.87 |