← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 63% | 61% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.80 | value: +5% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 17% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.78 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand