← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 24, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 65% | 71% | 1.48 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 16% | 11% | 6.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg −1.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 23' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 50' | ⚽ | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 329.00 | 1211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1665.19 | 1514.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.09 | 15.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -1.39 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.39 | — |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.33 |