← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 18% | 18% | 5.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.64 | value: +3% |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Anthony Rouault · VfB Stuttgart |
| 11' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 15' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg |
| 17' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jacob Bruun Larsen · VfB Stuttgart |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 82' |
| 🟨 |
| Jordy Makengo · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 658.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1784.69 | 1662.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.55 | -4.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.22 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 2.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.30 | 1.06 |