← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
| Bochum win | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bochum +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 10' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 13' | ⚽ | Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig |
| 19' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 21' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 48' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · Bochum |
| 56' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · Bochum |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Myron Boadu · Bochum |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 17.00 | 1144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1514.82 | 1797.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.41 | 0.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.59 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.36 |