← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 84% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +4% |
| Wolfsburg win | 5% | 5% | 21.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Wolfsburg −2.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 75% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 24' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 83' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 201.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1906.43 | 1668.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.03 | 14.27 |
| eye test v1 | 2.01 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.60 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 1.52 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 26.39 |
| state index | 1.76 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.74 | 1.79 |