← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 55% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.08 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 20% | 4.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 1' | ⚽ | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 23' | 🟨 | Luca Kerber · Heidenheim |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 56' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luca Kerber · Heidenheim |
| 64' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Haktab Omar Traore · Heidenheim |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 79' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| ⚽ |
| Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Skelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1171.00 | 6346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1730.13 | 1625.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.21 | -29.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.03 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.25 |