← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 48% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 60% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 5' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 10' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 20' | 🟨 | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jacob Bruun Larsen · VfB Stuttgart |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 70' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | 🟨 | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 🟥 |
| Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 88' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 88' | 🟥 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | El Chadaille Bitshiabu · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 655.00 | 1141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1775.53 | 1806.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.18 | -21.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.39 |