← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 14, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 51% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 24% | 21% | 4.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lukas Nmecha · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lukas Nmecha · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Shio Fukuda · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 593.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1653.12 | 1644.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.94 | 5.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.23 |