← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 66% | 69% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.04 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 15% | 10% | 6.73 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| SC Freiburg −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Nicolai Remberg · SC Freiburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 38' | ⚽ | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 74' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Javorček · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days | 194.00 | 1198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1669.84 | 1510.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.98 | -18.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 20.88 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.03 |